Description: The arrested leader of the SPLM – IO (Sudanese People Liberation Movement in Opposition) Riek Machar has been ousted by his own party indicating the party faces severe internal divisions. Machar was arrested two weeks ago by government forces over coup de état accusations. South Sudan has faced growing political crisis in the past month, which saw the White Army Militia engage in deadly confrontations with government military forces in the northern parts of the country. The 2018 peace agreement signed by siting President Salva Kiir and Machar obliged the country to held elections initially in 2023 which were later postponed to 2024 and again to 2026. The ongoing political crisis and internal divisions within the opposition put the country in a precarious state where the risk of a renewed civil war persists.
Impact: Oppositional divisions and the ousting of Kiir’s primary opponent, Riek Machar, signal transformation within the ranks of the SPLM – IO. Reports of defected party members raised concerns that SPLM – IO’s defected members of the political wing could provide the much-needed support for Machar’s White Army Militia. The current state of affairs significantly endangers the fragile peace agreement from 2018 as a divided opposition and the sitting authoritarian government are set on a possible collision course. Initial signals from the newly inaugurated political echelon within the SPLM – IO signaled the party’s willingness to renegotiate and deescalate tensions with President Salva Kiir. The delay of elections and internal divisions within South Sudan’s political opposition point to an aggravated state of affairs in the short to midterm, which could stipulate further prolonged crisis potentially escalating armed conflicts and instability.