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Brief

Iran and the US: First Impressions of the Initial Negotiations in Oman

Description: The meeting between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday marked the first contact both countries had with each other within the past ten years. Positive signals came out of Oman after the meeting, although, US President Donald Trump has stated that Iran is continously trying to stall out the negotiations. Unidentified sources with intimate knowledge of the meeting have disclosed that the US has presented additional demands to the Iranian officials mostly regarding their nuclear program. The demands entailed providing the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites across the country for an unspecified period of time, and complete overview of Iran’s foreign banking assets and money flows, especially those of entities tied to the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps). Those demands were followed by others which were speculated to have been pitched by Israel, such as, the total withdrawal of Iranian military presence from Iraq, seizure of enrichment processes across all nuclear sites in the country, ending proliferation of ICBMs (Inter – continental ballistic missiles) and the overall ending of support of any kind to regional and global terrorist offshoots. Representatives from both countries are expected to meet again on 19 Apr, Saturday, most probably in Oman, although Rome has also been floated as a possible meeting location.

Impact: The US has approached the bilateral negotiations with the good old diplomatic stick method, dictating demands to Iran, which is highly unlikely to work or gain traction within the Islamic Republic’s camp. The additional demands only intensify the pressure on Iran with no parallel guarantees which follow the US – led demands. The initially presented positive outcome from the negotiations was shambled by Trump’s immediate comments which blamed Iran for stalling while negative reactions from Iran’s representatives haven’t been solicitated. The negotiations are still in their initial fragile phase where diplomatic efforts could crumble under war threats and the imposition of unilateral demands. Iran is unlikely to crack under the mounting pressure from the US even though the country is in extremely difficult situation economically, while the US would have to adopt a moderate way of imposing demands if the goal is to resolve the Iran dispute and not escalate it into a prolonged crisis in the entire Middle East, which could have global implications.