Description: The Trump administration has outlined a plan for the continuance of US military aid to Ukraine under the condition Ukraine provides untethered access to its untapped rare earth resources deposits. The US practically conditioned their $300 billion in military aid support for the $12 trillion rare earth metal basins Ukraine has which are mostly located in the war thorn eastern region. The access to these unexploited deposits could facilitate US dominance on the production market, something that both Russia and China strived towards since the beginning of the war in 2022. Russia has already occupied crucial regions rich with these materials such as Crimea, Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk which could enable them continued access to funds for the financing of their war efforts. Ukraine could hope to exploit the basins after a peace agreement is reached and use the natural resources to obtain guarantees against future Russian aggression.
Impact: With the US involved in a trade cold war with China, in an attempt to bolster its economic position, the untapped natural resources of Ukraine could guarantee an upper hand in their global geopolitical efforts. Ukraine being strongly dependent on US military aid could agree to concessions under the condition a peace agreement is conceptualized. With recent Russian warfare advances in key regions, Russia would seek to gain the upper hand on the hypothetical negotiation table and further monopolize its position on the global natural resources market. Interests from EU couldn’t be excluded as most European countries have provided constant aid to Ukraine as their involvement would be intensified in the upcoming period. Ukraine could become crucial to global energy independence and play a key role in future geopolitical rearrangement.