Description: Ukrainian and Russian mid – level negotiators are set to meet again in Istanbul on 02 Jun, where the Russian – proposed ceasefire memorandum would be presented. Ukrainian and US officials have repeatedly stated that they have provided their Russian counterparts with ceasefire proposals with Russia refusing to disclose the details of the memorandum before the 02 Jun scheduled negotiations. Diplomatic efforts have ramped up in recent months with Russia continuing its aerial assaults inflicting massive civilian and infrastructure damages. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy recently stated that Russia is preparing a summer offensive with the amassment of around 50 thousand troops in the Sumy region, as he also emphasized that Ukraine was ready for a trilateral Trump – Putin – Zelenskyy meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Russia’s demands to include written guarantees from NATO in ceasing the expansion on its eastern borders, Ukraine’s disarmament and neutrality as well as the annexation of the five occupied territories in Ukraine by Russia.
Impact: Ukraine would most likely agree towards the renewed mid – level negotiations in Istanbul as the country enforces diplomatic engagement from a disadvantageous position. The Russian ceasefire memorandum would most probably impersonate Putin’s publicly stated demands for a ceasefire which further extends the gap between Russia and Ukraine towards agreeing on ceasefire and peace compromises. The US reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia further emboldens the Russian negotiating side in enforcing unrealistic demands and significantly undermines the already depleted diplomatic efforts on the Ukrainian side. The second round of negotiations isn’t expected to deliver any significant progress as Russia continues to stall the peace process while strengthening its battlefront dominance. Ukraine is unlikely to agree towards any demands from Russia counting on calculative support from the US and Europe which further prolongs the war as polar opposite proposals diminish any form of peace or ceasefire.