Description: Thailand and Cambodia abruptly escalated an almost century – long territorial dispute after last week’s border confrontation which left one Cambodian soldier deceased. Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra held a National Security Council meeting on 06 Jun which resulted in a considerable military buildup on several border crossings with Cambodia. He reiterated that Thailand would prefer to resolve the disputes via diplomatic sources instead of direct military confrontation. Cambodian foreign officials have stated they intend on addressing the disputes to the International Court of Justice, which Thailand categorically doesn’t recognize. Defense ministers from both countries met over the weekend where they discussed returning the border demarcations to the previously agreed geographical locations officially recognized in 2024. Diplomatic efforts to deescalate the issue continue in effect as bilateral border tensions are still on a high level of escalation.
Impact: Recent activities coupled with public statements from government officials signal that the recently inflamed bilateral tensions are moving towards a resolution through diplomatic efforts. Both countries are faced with growing economic pressure from the trade war between China and the US and are positioned on a geopolitical crossroads where they need to polarize their allegiances to one of the global superpowers. Potential escalation of the dispute would lead to a widespread regional crisis taking into consideration the ongoing civil war in neighboring Myanmar that has been active since 2021. Direct immediate meetings between defense and foreign officials bring both countries closer to reaching an official agreement and working through a long – term solution of their territorial dispute.