Description: Russian President Valdimir Putin announced a unilateral three – day ceasefire beginning on 08 May, coinciding with the Victory Day parade marking the 80th anniversary since the end of World War II. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy proposed for the unilateral ceasefire to be extended into a permanent one, as the US has repeatedly threatened to abandon the peace initiative if constructive results aren’t achieved soon. Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has stated that Russia categorically rejects Zelenskyy’s proposal as it suspects it would be used for frontline recuperation and rearmament instead of initiating direct negotiations. The US – brokered peace initiative hasn’t given any results so far, as both countries remain adamant in their demands with obstacles such as territorial concessions and the structure of Ukraine’s security constantly representing main issues towards direct negotiations.
Impact: Russia’s outright rejection for a permanent ceasefire underscores their advantageous position in the current state of negotiations with both the US and Ukraine. The US would most probably invest in a large-scale push in order to bring Ukraine and Russia closer to the negotiating table, however, the risk of abandoning the initiative has risen significantly since Trump inserted his administration as a mediator. Ukraine’s constant inclination towards a ceasefire contradicts Zelenskyy’s public statements of rejection regarding territorial concessions, which are effectively admitting defeat, a move that would both operationally and politically capitulate Ukraine. With no results over months of intense shuttle diplomacy between Russia and the US, the conflict would remain unresolved in the short to mid – term period, leaving Ukraine stranded between conditioned support from the US and reliance on its European allies, which are still in the phase of consolidation from the dissolution of transatlantic relations.