Description: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced that he intends to call for a vote of confidence in the Parliament as a sign that his ruling coalition isn’t affected by the result from the presidential election. Karol Nawrocki, conservative, right – wing candidate supported by the Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) narrowly triumphed over liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and is set to become the next Polish President on 06 Aug. Nawrocki and Tusk are set on a collision course over multiple issues that affect Poland’s domestic and foreign policies such as judicial legislature, civil rights concerning the LGBTQ population and abortion, migration issues mostly affecting the almost 1 million Ukrainians in the country and Poland’s role in the EU. Nawrocki as the next President would have the ability to block and veto upcoming political resolutions coming from Tusk’s Parliament which would cause massive reform obstacles and deadlocks around strategic measures imposed in accordance with Poland’s national interests. Tusk’s government was on shaky political ground even before the election while some sources indicated that the confidence vote may backfire in favor of Nawrocki and topple Tusk’s government causing early parliamentary elections. The date for the confidence vote has not yet been determined.
Impact: On the aftermath of the presidential elections, Poland is experiencing a low – scale political crisis at the moment which has been further catalyzed by Prime Minister Tusk’s announcement for a vote of confidence. The evident political divisions between the PiS led presidency and the Civic Platform led government could climax over the vote of confidence as a potential no vote of confidence would mean instigating early parliamentary elections and plunging the country into a deepened political crisis in a crucial period of escalated external threats. Early indications showcase a drastic fall in Tusk’s approval and popularity ratings which designates the move to call a confidence vote as a calculated risk at best. Out of the plethora of conflicting issues between Nawrocki and Tusk, Poland’s role in the EU and the issues with Ukrainian migrants top the list, as potential Polish exit from EU’s Migration Pact, the Green Deal and issues with the judicial reforms could isolate Poland within the EU. Successful confidence vote only gives Tusk’s government credibility and legitimacy to continue in power while not resolving any of the pressing internal political disputes with the newly elected President. Both scenarios indicate that Poland is set on a destabilization course, which further compromises EU and NATO’s eastern flank in crucial period of the war in Ukraine.