Description: Conservative right – wing Karol Nawrocki narrowly triumphed in the close presidential runoff election against the liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski. Nawrocki was briefly losing before the final vote count but managed to secure 50.89% of the votes as opposed to 49.11% of Trzaskowski. The closely monitored Polish presidential elections delivered a candidate which promised to make Poland more independent within the European Union as well as reinvigorated the political standing of the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS). The presidential function in Poland has a largely ceremonial role although the President is eligible to block key legislature and reforms within the foreign policy and defense sectors. Nawrocki shortly before the runoff election was publicly endorsed by the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement of Donald Trump’s ruling Republican party, which most sources consider as the turning point in the elections. Nawrocki despite being an EU – skeptic, promised to continue to supply Ukraine with logistical support and military equipment but also poses a significant threat towards Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s push for legislature reforms as well as considerable enhancement of Poland’s defense budget. Nawrocki is also expected to take a tougher stance on the millions of Ukrainian refugees in Poland who he accused of abusing the Polish socio – economic system.
Impact: Nawrocki’s victory puts Poland in a divisive position as it currently has a diversified political portfolio, with PiS holding the presidency while the Civic Platform party of Prime Minister Tusk holds the parliament. Nawrocki’s pre – election vows aim to boost Poland’s conservative integrity and to some degree distance the country from asserting itself as one of the pivotal countries within the EU. Opposition towards Tusk’s reformist legislature is expected to increase further creating widening divisions which could have significant ramifications towards the country’s internal stability. Nawrocki’s close ties to Donald Trump’s conservative and isolationist policies could position Poland to serve as a bridge in surmounting current differences between the EU and the US, depending on the new President’s position towards the EU. Poland’s internal political divisiveness could further destabilize the already porous eastern flank of the EU in times of substantial geopolitical upheaval.