Description: Filipinos are facing crucial Senate elections amid scaling crisis caused by enhanced influence and pressure from China. The Philippines, a close US regional ally, have been plunged towards internal political crisis which revolved around Sara Duterte’s impeachment initiatives and the imprisoning of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC (International Criminal Court). The country is under heavy scrutiny ranging from close encounters between its Coast Guard and Chinese naval vessels to falling victim of Chinese hybrid threats such as election meddling and disinformation campaigns. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adopted a warm narrative towards his country’s biggest ally, the US, and increased criticism towards China, putting his Partido Federal ng Pilipinas party as the likely winner of the Senate midterm election.
Impact: The Philippines midterm election would depict the country’s capability of resisting Chinese influence, as recent findings indicated that more than 45% of online discussions regarding the elections were driven by fake accounts. China has increasingly violated the territorial waters of the Philippines in recent months which put additional pressure on the US and in return solicitated a larger scale of support personified through numerous joint military and naval exercises. The Philippines represent a key strategic point for the US in the constant power struggle in the disputed South China Sea, which indicates larger support by the US in resisting upcoming hybrid threats and conventional confrontations. China would most likely ramp up its disinformation campaigns and enlarge interference operations aiming at internally destabilizing the country which is a key obstacle in their Indo – Pacific geopolitical ambitions.