Description: India and Pakistan’s military forces along the borders of the disputed Kashmir region exchanged small arms fire for four nights consecutively, which fueled concerns for an all – out war between the nuclear neighbors. India pursuing the perpetrators of the deadly Pahalgam attack has stated that Pakistan’s military buildup across key focal points on several border crossings prompted the small arms confrontations, while Pakistan has declared defensive repositioning aimed at countering Indian forces. The international community involving the US, the United Nations and China have all called for considerable de-escalation between the two countries and putting diplomatic resolution of the dispute before armed fighting and direct large-scale confrontations.
Impact: Pakistan is currently facing growing domestic economic and political crisis with insurmountable cost of living surges while battling militant and separatist groups in Baluchistan and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, which make the country vulnerable and susceptible to hybrid threats from India. India has recently reaffirmed strategic ties with the US and strengthened ties with some of its European allies which could power the country to take the initiative in the conflict, causing a prolonged crisis in the region. Most invested countries in the conflict such as the US and China haven’t directly approached the escalating tensions, with China being an important partner to Pakistan while the US unequivocally backing India, indicating on the improbability of a large-scale confrontation. The region is fueled with militant and separatist groups which could be exploited by both sides as proxy methods of warfare which in turn could fuel further escalation of military tensions. Curiously enough, the group that claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack has categorically denounced their involvement blaming the previous statement on a cyberattack originating from Indian servers. Large scale confrontation at this point is highly improbable, while small scale kinetic incursions by both sides would increase on a daily basis.