Description: Beate Gangas, Head of the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) has issued a warning of possible increase in Russian sabotage attacks during 2025. The statement embroiled the heightened diplomatic tensions between Russia and Norway since the invasion of Ukraine. Norway became Europe’s largest crude oil supplier since international sanctions imposed on Russia saw Europe investigate alternative energy sources. According to Gangas, the sabotage attacks would be mostly targeting oil infrastructure capabilities and test the resilience on the Norway – Russia land and sea border. PST also warned of enlarged espionage attempts from China, Iran and North Korea aimed at disrupting the military aid package for Ukraine that was estimated at $18.8 billion for the 2023 – 2030 period.
Impact: Russia is currently in a substantial advantageous position in the war with Ukraine having occupied key chokepoints on the frontline and regions that were mineral – rich and sought for. Norway’s intelligence service estimations of high levels of sabotage attacks and espionage penetrations couldn’t be taken for granted as the last months of 2024 saw Russia inflict serious damage to EU countries through subversion, election meddling and disinformation campaigns. Since Norway remains EU’s energy security guarantor at the time being, NATO and EU intelligence forces should aim towards enhanced cooperation and adopting adequate countermeasures against Russian offensive intelligence campaigns. The protection of key infrastructure points remains a priority for Europe so Russia would be expected to target crucial energy supply networks for Europe.