Description: In the late hours on 12 Jun and early 13 Jun more than 200 Israeli jets conducted target focused aerial attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, scientists and high-level military personnel. Initial reports indicated that IRGC’s Chief of the military Staff Mohammed Bagheri, IRGC General Hossein Salami and the top political advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Ali Shamkhani. In addition to the high – level assassinations of military personnel, Israel also eliminated several Iranian nuclear scientists who have been integral to the rapid enrichment capabilities. Israeli air assets also targeted the nuclear facilities located in Natanz, Fordow and on the outskirts of Iranian capital Tehran causing considerable damages. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the US had not participated in any capacity in the attacks on Iran and its priority was to protect US diplomatic and military personnel in the region. The international community has called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting in an attempt to immediately deescalate the tensions. The latest reports indicated Iran launched low – scale drone attacks and was preparing ballistic missiles launch pads as retaliatory strikes continue to take shape. Iranian officials have announced their intent to completely abandon the nuclear talks with the US scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday, 15 Jun. The Israeli operation was launched on the back of growing concerns over Iran’s rapidly developing nuclear enrichment capabilities and has been reportedly months in the making with covert intelligence incursions on Iranian territory. Air spaces from several countries in the Middle East were closed as Israel has issued countrywide warnings to its population preparing for a retaliatory strikes from the Iranian side. Oil and gold prices have rapidly surged in line with concerns over military disruption of key commercial shipping lines such as the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz.
Impact: Israel has unilaterally upended all diplomatic efforts surrounding the Iran nuclear issue. The attacks pose direct risk towards causing a swirling expanded crisis in the Middle East potentially dragging the region into an all – out war. Militant proxy groups aligned with Iran and operating on the Syrian and Iraqi territories have warned against the Israeli imminent strikes which further aggravates the playing field overtly implicating the fractured Iraq and Syria on a direct collision course with Israel. The US has navigated away from the confrontation shielding their regional assets from certain Iranian retaliation while some sources have stated the US continued to provide Israeli air force with logistical support in their offensive. Calls for de-escalation won’t impact short to mid – term developments on the ground as Israel’s decision to attack Iran to some extent isolates Netanyahu’s government in their unilateral course of action. Netanyahu’s public pledges to the Iranian nation coupled with Israel’s targeted assassinations of its top military personnel indicates that Israel’s ultimate goal of the operation is to topple the Islamic regime in Iran and militarily force it into submission through decimating its military, political and nuclear command. The US despite unilaterally washing its hands from the confrontation could be expediently dragged into the war on par with Iran’s expected activation of militant proxy groups and the numerous US targets in the region as well as taking into consideration the close ties between the US and Israel. The armed confrontation is expected to continue over the course of the next couple of days as the Middle East once again becomes a warfare flashpoint with global implications.