Description: Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while addressing the nation, casted doubt on any rapid progress in the ongoing US – Iran nuclear negotiations. He restated Iran’s position on the uranium enrichment issue and stated that the country would continue to develop its civilian nuclear capacities with or without US approval. Khamenei also stated that signals from the previous four meetings indicated that the US was insisting on completely dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions as he cited statements from US Special envoy Steve Witkoff. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht – Ravanchi supported Khamenei’s statements by reinforcing the narrative that Iran must be allowed to develop nuclear capacities for civilian purposes under international supervision. The foreign officials also denounced the statement made by US President Donald Trump that concrete proposals for continued negotiations were delivered to Iran. Representatives from both countries are yet to determine and agree upon a date and place for the fifth round of negotiations.
Impact: The statements made by Iranian high level government officials and their religious Supreme leader represent the first concrete information around the bilateral negotiations and a potential risk which could lead towards direct confrontation. Under the current constellation of relations, both the US and Iran are reinforcing their positions and emphasizing red lines around which no concessions would be made. The US side has made their position clear by repeatedly threatening Iran with sanctions and military intervention, while Iran has so far resisted the economic and military pressure and remained committed towards developing their nuclear program. The recent developments indicate existing impasses between the US and Iran and could be also perceived as diplomatic repositioning ahead of the fifth meeting. Direct confrontation or military intervention by the US towards Iran is still an unlikely probability, however, the consistent military buildup in the region coupled with escalated diplomatic tensions pose a serious threat towards a peaceful resolution to the dispute.