Description: Unidentified and unnamed sources from the Iranian government close to the negotiation team stated that the latest US proposal would be categorically rejected by the regime as it stated unrealistic demands in return for no benefits. The information comes only a day after IAEA report stated that Iran has substantially enriched its capacities and is a mere technical step away from developing a nuclear weapon. Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El – Sisi and IAEA’s Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi in Cairo, where discussions were held regarding the IAEA’s concerns over Iran’s enrichment levels, while Araghchi has expressed his discontent of the report stating that the IAEA has been abused by foreign powers to indirectly influence and pressure Iran towards unrealistic concessions. Conflicting reports regarding the US proposals quickly emerged as one stated that the US would allow Iran enrichment capabilities on foreign soil, more precisely in Saudi Arabia, if IAEA inspectors were directly monitoring the program. Other reports indicated that Iran offered assurances regarding their nuclear program in the form of a joint – inspections committee comprised of US, Iranian, Saudi Arabian and inspectors from the IAEA. The information arrives at an integral moment where both countries are awaiting the sixth round of talks.
Impact: International pressure from almost every side including the IAEA, Europe, the US, Israel and even Saudi Arabia haven’t persuaded the Iranian regime to backpedal on their demands regarding their nuclear program. The information regarding a potential rejection of the first US proposal, even if credible, remains as the starting point of the next level of negotiations which would include proposals and counter proposals. The Iranian public optics of the negotiations have so far demonstrated a levelheaded approach which signals that the US proposal wouldn’t be outright rejected but responded with a modification of the demands or even submitted with counter proposals towards a possible resolution to the dispute. Going forward, key roles in future developments hold the mediating forces in the negotiations, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the IAEA towards reaching a potential resolution of the bilateral nuclear dispute with global ramifications. The US would continue pressuring Iran throughout every possible channel towards concedin their proposals while Iran would continue to resist the pressure in the short-term counting on lobbying efforts through the mediators. The sixth round of negotiations would be critical for the development of the nuclear talks going forward.