Description: IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) Senior Chiefs have urged Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lift the fatwa (legal ruling) on nuclear weapons announced in the early 1990’. The ruling from the 1990’ emphasized the prohibition of stockpiling, developing and using nuclear weapons. IRGC leaders’ pledges came as Iran has entered a reoccurring cycle of tensions with Israel and the US amid the war in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The potential lifting of the ban could enable and authorize the development of Iranian nuclear capabilities which could severely heighten military tensions and nuclear readiness in the region.
Impact: The pledge from the IRGC chiefs comes as no surprise since Iran has suffered significant loses recently in Gaza and the West Bank where although not entirely defeated but militarily suppressed Hamas and Hezbollah withdrew. The Iranian nuclear question is a significant global and Middle Eastern security and geopolitical question which could either lead towards substantial rearmament of the countries in the region or the de – escalation of military tensions. The more likely scenario in the short – term would be that Iran would remain committed to their pledges of not developing a nuclear weapon and throw the conjectural geopolitical ball towards its Western adversaries Israel and the US. On the long – term and especially considering the depletion of its terrorist proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran could potentially readjust their stance on nuclear weapons.