Description: Following last week’s fifth round of nuclear negotiations the US and Iranian negotiating teams have once again obscured the positive and productive signals into revolving threats of retribution. US President Donald Trump stated that the last round of negotiations marked a noteworthy progress while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated the fifth round to have been the most professional round of negotiations so far. Trump besides positively signaling a non – violent outcome reiterated the military threats while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reinforced his country’s position by saying that Iran doesn’t singularly depend on the outcome of the negotiations and they retain their sovereign right to develop a civilian nuclear program. The positive signals and the fifth round of negotiations were followed by a turbulent week where conflicting and aggressive statements from both the US and Iran were indicating a potential direct confrontation. US intelligence reports also suggested that Israel was planning or had a strong intent to conduct aerial strikes on Iran’s nuclear plants if the fifth round of negotiations didn’t deliver something concrete. Both sides agreed to meet again, awaiting instructions from the Omani mediators.
Impact: The fifth round of negotiations earmarked an initial point where converging statements from both camps strongly suggest an intended compromise. Statements from high level officials such as US President Donald Trump and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi complemented each other which could potentially stipulate some level of progress and stepping down from each side’s red lines. The looming threat remains to persist in the form of Iran’s nuclear enrichment levels and intent, however, potential compromises might have been discussed as well as some sort of controlling and monitoring mechanisms that could potentially allow Iran to continue developing and enriching uranium for energy purposes. The US seems to have accepted the inadequacies imposed by real politics factors revolving around the negotiations as the fifth round of nuclear talks indicated some level of progress. Iran might agree to outside supervision by neutral inspectors on its nuclear capacities or other forms of control and monitoring mechanisms as their priority seems to maintain developing their nuclear capacities. Awaiting the sixth round of mediated nuclear talks and despite the positive signals, tensions between both countries are still on a prominent level as the regional military buildup remains constant.