Description: Indian and Pakistani officials announced on 10 May that backchannel negotiations, mostly pushed forward by the US, have resulted in a temporary ceasefire agreement which substantially deescalated tensions between the nuclear – powered neighbors. The two countries have walked a tight confrontational rope ever since the Pahalgam terrorist attacks and rapid escalation saw military skirmishes on both sides of the border and the jointly administered Kashmir province. Shortly after US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire agreement both countries accused each other of violations, however, tensions doused down quickly as the confrontations were bilaterally stopped, and the ceasefire took effect. Saudi Arabia and the UK were also accredited with contributing towards developing a standing ground for the ceasefire agreement, as their diplomatic efforts have been crucial to bringing both sides to negotiating the ceasefire. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice – President JD Vance were apparently integral in concluding the fragile agreement by leading the US diplomatic campaign in intense negotiations on Thursday, 08 May, which lasted for over 48 hours. The early violations by both sides of the ceasefire signal the need for rapid response and further intensification of diplomatic efforts into a broad peace agreement.
Impact: The largely expected ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump enriches the US diplomatic engagement portfolio and benefits the US President with key political points on the domestic and global scene in the midst of, so far, failed peace negotiations in Ukraine and Gaza. The artificially imploded escalation of tensions which took more than 80 human lives on both sides, represented one more geopolitical battleground, as the current ceasefire is highly likely to be used as the foundation towards establishing a broader peace agreement between India and Pakistan, probably enshrining the Kashmir province. The US, as well as other complimentary facilitators such as the UK and Saudi Arabia, would probably pressure both countries into a bilaterally conditioned peace agreement with predetermined systems of operational, political and diplomatic control in order to ensure its durability. The exclusion of China from the ceasefire and peace conversation indicates the country’s limited investment of diplomatic capital in the dispute,mostly towards Pakistan as their closest regional ally, as they are currently engaged in high stakes trade talks with the US as well as putting pressure in other important geopolitical theaters such as the Indo – Pacific. The ceasefire agreement although fragile is expected to last in the short to mid – term and transpire towards a broader dimension of conflict resolution between India and Pakistan.