Description: Small arms confrontations have erupted between the Indian and Pakistani armies along the border between the Indian and Pakistani administered parts of Kashmir. The escalation followed the deadly terrorist attack in the Pahalgam province on 22 Apr where 26 tourists were killed. The attacked sparked almost century – old animosities between the neighbors over the disputed Kashmir region as India has expelled almost all diplomatic and military advisory personnel and threatened to use the Indus Water treaty and limit or disrupt the water supply to Pakistan. Pakistan has so far closed their airspace for Indian aircrafts, suspended trade and canceled visas for Indian nationals. The kinetic confrontation also saw intense military buildup alongside the neighboring borders of the disputed province as reported by several unofficial Telegram channels. Experts have raised serious concerns over the escalation of the conflict as both countries posses nuclear weapons and have a historically deep rooted disputes that saw the countries in multiple military skirmishes ever since gaining independence from the British kingdom in 1947.
Impact: The direct confrontation between the militaries of both countries represents a serious intensification in bilateral ties between the two countries in recent years. Both countries have shifted blame for recent terrorist attacks personified through the deadly Pahalgam attacks and the train attacks in the Baluchistan province, which have propelled the countries on a direct collision course. The military buildup alongside the borders of the disputed Kashmir province further incentivizes armed confrontation as both armies were put on a high level of preparedness. Despite territorial disputes, the conflict also revolves around key strategic and geopolitical issues, with Pakistan being a key member of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative while India being a key US regional strategic ally. Outside of temporary amplification of armed fighting, large scale confrontations at this stage are highly improbable as both countries would face severe international pressure to deescalate tensions and resort to diplomatic solutions in the conflict.