Description: Military officials from Pakistan, including Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar have stated that India repeatedly violated Pakistani airspace in the past 24 hours, sending over 25 Israeli – made drones which were eventually neutralized. Military confrontations have escalated since India launched operation Sindoor which targeted alleged terrorist camps within Pakistani territory connected to the deadly Pahalgam attack on 22 Apr. Intense shelling as well as armed confrontations over the heavily militarized Line of Control (LOC) in the Kashmir province also intensified, while blackout drills and large-scale relocation of civilians took place. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a high – level security meeting and stated that India’s military is on its highest level of preparedness, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif strongly condemned India’s violations of Pakistan’s airspace and vowed to retaliate India’s incursions adequately. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as other foreign officials have demanded restraint from both sides and incentivized diplomatic resolutions to the spiraling confrontation.
Impact: Despite the spiraling conventional military confrontation and repeated incursions by India, the recently escalated tensions between the two countries are unlikely to transpire towards an all – out confrontational scale. Pakistan has so far demonstrated considerable restraint in their retaliatory measures while showing weak signals of engaging in ceasefire negotiations with India. Diplomatic efforts have been reported from countries such as the US, Saudi Arabia, Iran which have sent envoys to both countries in an attempt for de-escalation while the domestic pressure in both India and Pakistan to respond to aggression mounts vividly. In the short to mid – term period, the military buildup and conventional armed confrontations would be on the rise with both countries eventually engaging in direct or mediated peace or ceasefire negotiations, falling under the pressure of foreign diplomatic campaigns from various countries.