Description: In the last couple of months, Russian maritime sabotage attacks have largely increased due to the omnipresent Russian shadow fleet within European waters. The key chokepoint in the Baltic Sea where territorial waters from several countries intersect and many international law issues emerge in controlling the presence of the ships pertaining to the Russian shadow fleet. Estonian, Latvian and Finnish authorities have undertaken several initiatives to tackle these legal issues in order to suffocate Russia’s main source of finance in the war against Ukraine. The initiatives discussed underscored the importance of seizure of these ships through environmental inspections, chartering joint maritime taskforces which would tackle the vast Baltic Sea waters and introducing domestic laws which entailed confiscation of the ships’ cargo.
Impact: The undertaken initiative reaffirmed the importance of the shadow fleet for the Russian war economy. Baltic countries would aim towards introducing enlarged legal measures which would enable them to severely cripple the shadow fleet. The introduction of new maritime law could potentially endanger legal maritime trade and impose inspections which would deter companies from using the Baltic Sea as key transportation and maritime trade chokepoint. Russia’s shadow fleet could potentially readapt with the introduction of unsanctioned ships to the shadow fleet, the modernization of the shadow fleet or even the creating of deep legal backgrounds in terms of permits and companies to reduce the ships’ tracing. Maritime sabotage activities would continue as Europe has yet to introduce and implement a comprehensive response to Russian hybrid war efforts.