Description: President Trump’s tariffs have instigated a global trade war in which strategic alliances could substantially shift in China’s favor as the second largest global economy. Trump’s isolationist policies have caused economic disruptions on the global markets which could prompt European countries to soften their stance on Chinese consumer and industrial goods. Europe and China as competing economies could be expected to closely cooperate on several key economic sectors such as the automotive industry and the clean energy sectors. Chinese overproduction remains a significant factor which could provoke a more moderate response from Europe. Several other countries such as Canada and Mexico which have been also impacted by Trump’s tariffs, could also exploit alternative economic and strategic alliances in the future.
Impact: Europe has considerably depended on US support in every sense of multilateral relations, especially in countering China’s economic rise on the global stage. Trump’s shift towards an adversarial and hostile economic and defense policies towards Europe could severely impact Europe and China’s future cooperation as Europe is slowly forfeiting their place in the battle for global economic dominance. China as the second largest global economy would significantly exploit the strategic dissolution between Europe and US and would bolster their market presence in an attempt to curb US economic dominance. Europe’s perception towards Chinese global geopolitical positioning is expected to modify but not drastically change. Europe should adopt a moderate approach towards engaging in partnerships with China in the upcoming period having a longstanding perception of the country as an ideological and economic adversary.