Description: In line with the scheduled UK – EU summit on 19 May, official sources from the European Union and the Office of the Prime Minister in the UK signaled a potential strategic partnership agreement. Both the EU and the UK are facing severe challenges after the blanket imposition of US tariffs and would aim at bolstering mutual cooperation in key sectors such as economy, defense and trade. The cooperation would undertake crucial strategic issues such as a comprehensive defense and security pact on Ukraine which would reaffirm the positions of the UK and the EU regarding the war. Closer trade cooperation is also expected to be agreed, as the EU faces 20% tariffs from the US, while the UK is engaged in active negotiations with the Trump administration on reaching a favorable trade agreement and reducing the 10% blanket tariffs imposed on the country.
Impact: The UK is backtracking its strategic positioning initially caused by Brexit and reiterating its alignment with EU in the midst of devaluation of relations with the US. Trump’s tariffs coupled with the warmer narrative towards Russia and the US unilateral withdrawal from global affairs has prompted allied countries to strengthen ties and expand their strategic portfolios with alternate strategic allies. The move resonates a form of strategic consolidation between European countries which are struggling to fill the gap left by the US, especially in sectors such as economy, defense and facilitating continued support for Ukraine. Both EU and the UK evidently started to adapt towards the new geopolitical reality which underscores low credibility in reliance with the US and incentivizes conformation towards differentiated strategic partnerships.