Description: Leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez was reportedly having a slight lead over sitting President Daniel Noboa according to several poll sites in Ecuador. According to the Negocios & Estrategias poll, Luisa had 51.4% of the potential votes opposed to the 48.6% of voting support for Noboa. The second poll also indicated a slight difference of almost 0.9% between the candidates which highlighted the voting division within the Ecuadorian public. Ecuador faces existential threat from the constant political turmoil which saw former president Guillermo Lasso dissolve the Congress in order to avoid the legislative body to vote in favor of his removal. The country is also engulfed in perpetual waves of gang violence which the current political establishment has difficulties in countering.
Impact: Ecuador would face key run – off elections on 13 Apr, as the public would decide on the country’s future strategic posturing. Noboa lobbied to representatives from the Republican administration in order to secure a potential strategic partnership in mid-March with the US, which hasn’t resulted in growing support from Ecuador’s voting body. Luisa Gonzalez’ approach might prove to be crucial for winning the elections as the public has supported her alternative approach towards tackling key internal governance issues such as the gang violence. The country’s geostrategic positioning on the South American continent could see the country being rapidly pushed on resolving foreign allegiances, as neighboring Colombia also faces severe security and humanitarian crises.