Description: The trilateral military alliance between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo signed in Mar has prompted Serbia to announce a recently concluded joint military alliance with Hungary. The NATO members have so far repeatedly reassured their neighbors the alliance had no hostile intentions and stipulated closer cooperation between the countries on cybersecurity and defense against disinformation campaigns in times of heightened Russian and Chinese presence in the region. Serbia has responded with reproaching a previous military agreement signed with Hungary in 2023 as a response to the constant military buildup in the Western Balkans region. The region has seen significant rearmament in the past couple of years with Croatia and Serbia tapping France as well as China and Russia for equipment and weapons. The rearmament efforts have significantly inflated tensions between the countries which have a longstanding history of hostilities.
Impact: Despite the military buildup and recent tensions in the region such as the situation with the arrest of Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Hercegovina, there is no real possibility of larger military confrontations. Elevated US and NATO presence in the region prohibit further inflaming of tensions as countries are focused on ramping up defensive and military capabilities. Disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks as well as other hybrid forms of warfare are expected to be on the rise as Serbia is facing mounting political crisis which is further aggravated with the situation with President Dodik in Republika Srpska. NATO members such as Croatia and Albania would continue to forward their regional interests as extension of the Alliance’s southeastern flank in countering influence operations mostly originating through Russia and conducted by allied states such as Serbia.