Description: Colombian President Gustavo Petro has announced his intention to declare a national state of emergency over the escalating armed conflict in the northeastern parts of the country in the Catatumbo region, between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). The conflict between the armed groups escalated after failed peace talks were delayed last week between the Colombian government and the ELN. The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs raised concerns over a prolonged humanitarian crisis as it reported that over 18,300 people were already displaced, with most of them fleeing to neighboring Venezuela.
Impact: Raised levels of tension between the ELN and the Colombian government in cohesion with the mounting levels of violence could stem further destabilization and expand the humanitarian crisis in Colombia. With the President announcing national emergency, Colombia’s military has obvious difficulties isolating the crisis within its borders as many displaced civilians already sought refuge over the Venezuelan border. The conflict could become a severe regional threat as ELN numbered around 6,000 fighters while FARC after the demobilization in 2016 had around 11,000 fighters at their disposal. The Colombian government should be expected to make their utmost efforts and bring both sides to the negotiating table, however, it should also be prepared for a stalled out armed conflict escalation.