Description: National Liberation Army (ELN) commanders have pledged to continue fighting the government’s amassed army in northeastern parts of Colombia as several peace initiatives have failed in recent months. The leftwing insurgency group has tightened its grip on the regional drug trade in the border region of Catatumbo where it also clashed with offshoots of the FARC guerilla group in a battle for dominance over the drug trade routes. Since Jan the trilateral clashes between the Colombian army, ELN and FARC remnants caused the displacement of at least 56,000 people and over 100 have been killed which prompted the Colombian government to announce an emergency state across the country and deploy the army in the region.
Impact: The ongoing conflict in Colombia has already caused a developing migrant and humanitarian crisis and considerably worsened the security situation in the country. Despite the declaration of emergency state in the northeastern parts of the country, the Colombian army has had obvious difficulties countering ELN guerilla forces and with several peace initiatives faltered, the country is looking at a prolonged period of internal security and humanitarian crisis. With neighboring Ecuador also facing mounting pressure from gang violence and the influx of migrants in Venezuela, as well as the constantly brewing crisis in Haiti caused by armed gangs the regional destabilization could enter a substantial escalation period.