Description: IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, on IAEA’s quarterly Board Meeting urged both Iran and the US to resort towards diplomatically responsible solution which would benefit global stability. Recent developments surrounding Iran’s disputed nuclear program surged trilateral tensions between Iran, Israel and the US. Iranian secret service reportedly conducted a covert operation and retrieved classified information regarding Israel’s undeclared nuclear program and advanced defense systems. The regime also refused the latest US proposal and announced that they would submit their own, more balanced version, which would satisfy the demands on either side. IAEA is before a crucial decision on this week’s Board of Governors vote where the agency would decide whether Iran was incompliant regarding their uranium enrichment levels as per the 2015 JCPOA. The issue would most likely end up before the UN Security Council where the E3 counties would have the option of imposing the snapback sanctions mechanism according the JCPOA arrangements.
Impact: The delicate constellation of developments surrounding Iran’s nuclear program keeps trilateral tensions on a high level, sparking concerns over the deflation of the vested diplomatic efforts. Iran’s covert operation discoveries, coupled with the leaked IAEA report attesting to the country’s elevated uranium enrichment capacities, further prompted the US and Israel to pressure the country through military escalation. Iran continues to resist international pressure showcased through their intent to submit a counterproposal to the US nuclear deal which indicates on rallied backchannel support from allies such as China and Russia. Considering the uncertainty over the impact recent developments would have on the nuclear deal, both countries would most probably schedule the sixth round of negotiations soon, as reciprocal threats and media confrontations only stymie the process of resolution. Future negotiations would probably modify proposals from both sides as an unlike US – Israeli military intervention would prolong negotiations and spell further uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear program.