Description: Several violations of a predetermined ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been reported in the last couple of days which have incited concerns over renewal of armed confrontations between the conflicting countries. Both countries agreed to formulate a draft ceasefire and peace agreement in Mar ending almost 40 years of war over territorial disputes on the militarized border spreading more than 1 thousand kilometers. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region has substantially shifted in Azerbaijani favor since 2020 since they managed to invade the entire territory and force over 100 thousand Armenians to flee. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev consistently labeled Armenia as a fascist threat that needed to be neutralized while Armenian Nikol Pashinyan consistently defused tensions stating the countries wouldn’t engage in a renewed armed confrontation.
Impact: The complexities surrounding the border disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan are experiencing renewed tensions which could lead to renewed large scale confrontations. Both countries have agreed upon an extended peace initiative which is expected to be finalized by 2026 which could be influenced by the constant ceasefire violations. The Caucasus region is a key juncture for oil and gas supply towards Europe and represents a regional geopolitical battlefield of interests from Russia, Turkey and Iran. With a renewed Middle East crisis unraveling between Israel and Iran, animosities between Armenia and Azerbaijan could further aggravate and expand the crisis causing massive disruptions in global energy supply, impacting key supply chains and contributing towards a renewed security and humanitarian crises. The current low – scale tensions are gaining no significant traction, nevertheless, consistent territorial ambitions and inflammatory warring statements could push both countries into an enlarged confrontation in the mid to long – term.