Description: Severe diplomatic reciprocal actions were undertaken which followed the terrorist attack perpetrated in the Pahalgam province in India’s administered Kashmir. Tensions between Pakistan and India rapidly escalated as Pakistan closed off their airspace for Indian aircrafts while India announced the expulsion of any diplomatic and military advisory staff from New Delhi. India also put the 60 – years long Indus Water Treaty between the two countries as a potential retaliatory measure against Pakistan which directly threatens Pakistan’s agricultural industry and irrigation capabilities. Tensions surged after India directly blamed Pakistan for state sponsorship of the terrorist attack in Pahalgram which left 26 tourists dead. Pakistan has vehemently denounced any participation in the terrorist attack and pledged to reciprocally respond to India’s mounting threats and measures. The nuclear powers were set on a collision course on top of reigniting decadeslong territorial disputes over the contested Kashmir province.
Impact: The terrorist attack in Pahalgam reignited animosities between the two countries and rapidly escalated bilateral measures and countermeasures threatening direct military confrontation. Tensions between the two nuclear powers have been considerably doused down in the past couple of years but were substantially aggravated initially by the train attack in the Baluchistan province when Pakistan accused India of sponsoring the separatists. The Pahalgam attack solicited India to escalate their stance towards Pakistan by leveling accusations of state sponsorship of terrorism and undertaking serious diplomatic and military measures as a response. Despite the surging tensions, direct military confrontation between the countries is currently improbable since both India and Pakistan couldn’t risk causing a regional crisis that could have global implications and plunge Southeast Asia in a prolonged crisis. Small scale military incursions and confrontations could be possible with both countries solidifying their military posturing across the border lines. Tensions would likely further escalate in the short to mid term while probable backchannel facilitation could contribute towards de-escalation of tensions.