Description: Senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani warned that Iran may expel inspectors from IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) if threats from the US continue. Tensions between the two countries are at a tipping point, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly threating to directly attack Iran if they don’t agree to severe concessions regarding their disputed nuclear program. High level negotiations are set to begin on Saturday in Oman where tensions are expected to be deescalated. European countries have once again been sidelined and marginalized from the process by the US despite playing a crucial role in pressuring Iran towards agreeing to abandon their military nuclear pursuit.
Impact: The threat for expulsion of the IAEA inspectors by Iran can be considered as one of the counter measures in light of consistent threats from the US. Iran and the US would mount reciprocal pressure facing crucial talks on Saturday, in an attempt to gain advantage in the negotiations. Europe’s sidelining emphasizes US unilateral foreign policy but could deflate the pressure on Iran, as a joint sanction effort from US and the EU would most certainly put Iran on the negotiating backfoot. The Oman negotiations would be a prelude to reestablishing essential diplomatic baselines for future negotiating references. Since concrete results from the meeting aren’t expected military posturing, tensions and sanctions would define the short to mid term narrative between the countries. The current state of affairs amplifies the possibility of a broad security, economic and humanitarian crisis both in the region and globally.