Description: Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine’s frontline troops have captured two Chinese soldiers fighting on Russia’s side in the Donetsk region. Ukraine’s military has verified the soldiers to be Chinese as legitimate identification papers were found in their belongings. Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister has contacted his Chinese counterpart to clarify the situation, as Beijing has repeatedly denounced their direct involvement of any kind in the Russia – Ukraine war. Lin Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson has stated that China had invested diplomatic capital in resolving the war despite being sidelined by the US and hasn’t incentivized any kind of facilitation to the Russian forces on the front. The incident represents a serious shift in the war, as China’s involvement would cause disbalance to the negotiating scales and disrupt any ongoing potential peace or ceasefire negotiations.
Impact: Sanctioned Chinese involvement in the conflict would significantly tip the negotiating scales in Ukraine’s favor as it would potentially shift the current US position on Russia. Ukraine could significantly benefit from this development although proving that the soldiers were officially there on Beijing’s orders would be impossible. North Korea has already deployed troops that were mostly active in the Kursk region and assisted Russian soldiers on the front. Russia has also used Iran’s support in the conflict leveraging the Shahed drones. The alarming question is how the US would react after the recent discovery as Trump’s administration has been substantially hostile towards China. No significant progress would be achieved as the discovery wouldn’t have a significant impact on the ongoing negotiating process if and whether the US doesn’t change their positioning towards recent warmed relations with Russia.