Description: Opposing statements from Washington and Tehran indicated that Iran and the US are set to meet this week in Oman for high level talks on Iran’s nuclear program. US President Donald Trump, while hosting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington, stated that both sides would engage in direct negotiations on Saturday, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, objected the statement and said the talks on Saturday would be conducted under Oman’s mediation. In the interim, Tehran has put its military capabilities on the highest alert and warned neighbors against allowing US forces to use their airspaces. Russia has offered to directly intercede in defusing the boiling tensions between the two countries and mediate a potential agreement. The tensions gradually started to rise since the US’ withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018 and threaten direct conflict between the US and Iran which would plunge the entire Middle East into a prolonged security crisis with devastating consequences.
Impact: Indications of direct negotiations signal that both US and Iran would initially jointly seek to formulate some kind of an agreement concerning Iran’s disputed nuclear program. The talks being mediated by Oman’s representatives also resonate diplomatic willingness as the country has stable and close ties with both the US and Iran. Exclusion from other participants in the JCPOA such as France, the UK, Germany or Russia, stipulate that the initial meeting on Saturday, mediated or not, would purely serve as a form of measuring the political temperature between the two countries. Trump continues to address foreign issues in a direct and aggressively assertive manner which could potentially backfire when dealing with a hardline country such as Iran. Recent military posturing by both sides only empowers the possibility of a military conflict, however, the military buildup for now could be considered as the natural prelude which brings both sides to the negotiating table.