Description: Sources close to the US intelligence circles have stated that recent developments around the US – Iran nuclear negotiations prompted Israel to consider attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities without US support. The report was initially based on recent positioning and drills conducted by Israeli military assets in the region and internal discussions among high level government representatives. The information arrives just a day after Iran’s high level foreign officials and the country’s Supreme leader restated that Iran wouldn’t compromise on its right to develop its civilian nuclear program and continue uranium enrichment procedures. Iran in the meantime has ratified it’s 20 – year long strategic agreement with Russia which would cover bilateral cooperation in several areas of mutual interest such as security, defense, research and development and economy. The Omani Foreign Minister also announced that a fifth round of US – Iran negotiations is set to take place in Rome on 23 May which alleviated some of the pressure imposed by the media confrontation between officials from both countries. The US intelligence report allegedly also stated that Israel wouldn’t seek US support in conducting aerial strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, however, it would need US ordnance in order to penetrate the deeper bunkers.
Impact: Tensions between the US and Iran continue to rise on a daily basis while the recent intelligence report fuels further distrust and poses a risk which could compromise the announced fifth round of negotiations. The four rounds of negotiations between Iran and the US has so far failed to deliver any concrete results as both countries continued to reinforce their red lines instead of engaging more directly towards a potential resolution. The threat of Israeli attack could also be perceived as an attempt by Israel to further pressure the Iranian side towards making the first move and agreeing to forceful concessions. During the previous rounds of negotiations, the regional military buildup was perceived as potential guarantor of results expected to be delivered, however, the recent developments have raised the threat level which could potentially include a direct Israel – Iran confrontation without US approval. The fifth round of talks scheduled for 23 May would be crucial as both parties would be forced to break the logjam around the compromising negotiating points in order to avoid a large – scale security crisis.