Description: Last week’s escalation of violence when the leader of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) Abdulghani al – Kikli was murdered, substantially deescalated with the forming a joint truce committee. The UN mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya’s Presidential Council, affiliated with the Tripoli – based government formed the committee in an attempt to lay the groundwork for a lasting ceasefire. The committee follows growing concerns over escalation of violence and armed confrontation between the multiple armed militant groups under the splintered umbrella of Libya’s dual government. Last week’s situation significantly escalated when Colonel Ali Al – Jabri, the leader of the Security Directorates Support Agency survived an assassination attempt in Tripoli, after which Libya’s Defense Ministry announced it had re –established control over the capital. The committee is expected to deliver a long-lasting ceasefire proposal which would force Libya’s splinter governments to engage in unification negotiations.
Impact: The upheaval in armed confrontations within Libya’s fragmented government posed a potential risk which could have plunged the country into a resurgence of the 2011 crisis when former President Gaddafi was toppled. The committee would aim to integrate the splintered militant groups under a unified defensive umbrella and impose a lasting ceasefire between the Government of National Unity and Libya’s Special Deterrence Force (Rada). Libya’s fragmentized government is expected to be largely targeted in the upcoming period precipitated by the country’s vast oil deposits which are crucial resource for the country’s economic restructuring. Despite the UN – sponsored ceasefire committee small scale armed confrontations are expected to continue as no clear resolution to the government unification is in place, which possess additional risk to the country’s stability.