Description: After the failed Istanbul talks on 16 May, US President Donald Trump stated that he would talk with President Putin and Zelenskyy on Monday in an attempt to establish a firmer diplomatic connection. The mid – level negotiations in Istanbul resulted with more maximalist demands from Russia and merely lasted an hour and a half, as Ukraine and Russia only agreed on prisoner exchanges. The conversation on Monday would represent the most significant development so far in the war, as the US President would engage in a phone conversation with the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. Using Pope Leo’s inauguration, EU leaders Merz, Macron and Starmer have requested from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to hold a joint phone call before he engages the Russian President in order to establish a unified diplomatic front. The diplomatic initiatives were followed by a new wave of Russian aerial attacks which left more than 10 people dead in the Sumy region.
Impact: The media campaign behind the phone conversation between Putin and Trump is artificially inflated and would yield no concrete results. The conversation would mark the first time as a US President engages a Russian President since the start of the war and would most likely be embroiled into more Russian diplomatic posturing and the US trying to yield direct negotiations. Putin would further stress the need of restoring Russia’s demands and modify the narrative in Russia’s favor as he is aware of his country’s position in the negotiations under the current constellation of relations. Trump would most probably outline the need for a ceasefire with no concrete proposals to mediate such ceasefire, as no mechanisms or concessions have been negotiated for troop presence across the frontlines. EU’s role is considerably depleted in the peace negotiations as the bloc of countries maneuvers between coordinating a joint response with the US and opting to impose the 17th wave of sanctions on Russia.