Description: Ukraine’s President Volodymir Zelenskyy arrived in Ankara where he met Turkey’s Erdogan in what was supposed to result in a key breakthrough for the war against Russia. Putin previously signaled he won’t be attending the upcoming negotiations as he sent a mid – level delegation to make initial contact with their counterparts. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to arrive in Turkey on 16 May where trilateral negotiations between the Ukrainian, US and Russian representatives are set to take place. Zelenskyy heavily criticized the Russian position blaming Putin for misleading the peace efforts and prolonging the war. US President Donald Trump gave a brief statement while returning from his Gulf tour in the Middle East, stating that no breakthroughs are expected on Friday as that would require for himself and Putin to meet and discuss directly. US Senator Lindsey Graham on the precipice of the Friday talks stated that both the US and EU are ready with a heavy package of sanctions which would put up to 500% of tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and other oil derivatives.
Impact: Putin has once again outmaneuvered the US, EU and most importantly Ukraine and resisted the pressure to be dragged into a forceful negotiating process. The Russian side has attempted to shift the narrative for the past week stating that Ukraine had no real intentions of engaging into a long-lasting peace agreement and the ceasefire initiatives were short sighted and of negative diplomatic value. Despite the modification of the stance from the US side, Trump appears to still be at odds with both sides as no clear intent in strongly supporting the Ukrainian initiative was suggested through his statements. Taking the influence from the frontlines out of the conversation, Ukraine has garnered some serious diplomatic capital with the Istanbul initiative, painting Russia as the aggressive invader which aims to wage continuous war. The talks scheduled for Friday aren’t expected to deliver any significant progress as both sides, despite the presence of mediators, are a long way from any kind of bilateral reconciliation.