Description: Official reports from the Kremlin stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not attend the proposed Istanbul peace negotiations and would send emissaries instead. The announcement comes as days of continued Russian aerial attacks and silence from the Kremlin casted doubts over Putin’s presence in Istanbul. Reports indicated that the Russian delegation would be led by Vladimir Medinsky, close aide to Putin and the one that started the 2022 negotiations which failed. Medinsky would be accompanied by Russia’s deputy defense Minister Alexander Fomin, deputy foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and Igor Kostyukov, head of Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU. Ukraine’s foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is already in Ankara where he met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Senator Lindsey Graham as he elaborated on Ukraine’s position in detail considering the newest developments towards peace negotiations. US President Donald Trump briefly signaled that if there was any indication that Putin was on his way to Istanbul, he can divert his Gulf tour and join both presidents in the Turkish capital.
Impact: Putin’s reluctance to join his own peace initiative proposal while sending government and intelligence officials that have initially projected Russia’s maximalist demands completely obliterates the peace initiative. The US in the mid – term would either gradually revert its stance towards Russia or completely abandon the peace process since the sanctions threats became obsolete. Ukraine managed to paint a clear picture to the international community and more importantly to the US, that Russia’s calculative manipulation and diplomatic stalling showed the country’s clear position on continuing the war. Putin has played a dangerous bluffing game by refusing to meet Zelenskyy in Istanbul as his position of enforcing unilateral demands while making no concessions only serve to the detriment of the peace process and devaluate Russia’s current advantageous position. Russia risks becoming completely isolated within their own strategic bloc as they have characterized the US diplomatic efforts as rushed, premature and unconstructive. The meeting in Istanbul on 15 May won’t result in anything constructive as Russia’s delegation would only serve to further convey the message that the war is far from over and reiterate the Kremlin’s demands.