Description: After a turbulent weekend of diplomatic developments which saw leaders of Europe’s five largest armies visit Zelenskyy in Kyiv, the Victory Day Parade in Moscow and the ceasefire and negotiations proposal unfolding, Putin responded by launching 108 drones on Kherson on Monday. The Russian President was the one that initiated the negotiations proposal, set to take place in Istanbul on 15 May, which was initially rejected by Zelenskyy but eventually accepted. Putin went silent as he launched yet another deadly attack which by most was perceived as Russia’s response to any peace initiative and negotiations going forward. The Istanbul meeting remains elusive as no concrete official response from the Russian side has been solicitated except for further violence. The joint front which appeared abruptly between Europe and the US over the weekend silently diminished as Putin is well aware of Russia’s advantageous position and would aim at extracting anything and everything possible.
Impact: The silence and drones by Russia send a clear message that eventual negotiations would take place but only under Russian conditions with no ceasefire and no US and European interference. The initiative from the US and Europe over the weekend showed no cracks on the Russian side as Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy went so far as to agree to any form of conversation with Putin. The Russian President quickly put a stop to an alleged attempt to be pressured into negotiations as he stoically rejected any peace initiatives and forced the situation into further fluctuation and uncertainty. The US and Europe for now refrain themselves of using oppressive measures which were promised over the weekend even though that leaves little maneuvering space, as most of Russia’s entities that fuel the war are already sanctioned. Europe and the US have no concrete way of pressuring Russia which continuously dictates the emergence of any ceasefire or peace initiatives. Ukraine is pressured towards agreeing to detrimental concessions which would effectively capitulate the country despite securing the minerals deal with the US. Russia reaps the benefits from their invasion and mounts further pressure in order to achieve its globalist goals, with an expected shift in narrative, as the obvious hard – line enforcement of demands would limit the results from the current constellation of developments.