Description: After Saturday’s visit to Kyiv by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, signals from both Ukraine and Russia showed clinical breakthrough in the peace negotiations process. The European leaders on Saturday enforced the support for Ukraine as they also showed direct political and diplomatic defiance to Putin’s Victory Day parade when he hosted multiple country leaders with many of whom he had brief discussions. Through a press conference, Putin for the first time showed initiative to end the war and proposed to Ukraine’s Zelenskyy direct negotiations on 15 May in Istanbul without any preconditions. Zelenskyy had initially rejected the proposal without ceasefire guarantees, however, later he expressed willingness to meet personally with Putin in Istanbul in order for them to hold direct negotiations. US President Donald Trump labeled the diplomatic encounter through the media as a crucial breakthrough and reiterated his pledges to both leaders to end the war. French President Macron solidified Europe’s skepticism over Russia’s intentions and reconfirmed the unconditional support for Ukraine by stating the potential enhancement of sanctions against Russia. Turkey’s President Erdogan welcomed both Ukraine and Russia to reinstate the 2022 faltered Istanbul negotiations, as he stated that Turkey had the diplomatic privilege to maintain positive diplomatic relations with both sides.
Impact: The reinvigorated peace initiative comes on the back of heavy diplomatic campaigns and imposed international pressure, mostly by the US. Putin’s remarks to restart the Istanbul peace initiative from 2022 could be perceived as both, Russia further standing firm behind their maximalist demands to end the war and isolation of any mediating attempt through insisting towards direct negotiations. Zelenskyy’s recent diplomatic maneuvering could lead him to the elusive negotiating table with Putin, however, Russia’s position that no preconditions would be included casts a shadow of doubt whether the leaders will meet directly or through intermediaries. The visit by European leaders in Kyiv, was Europe’s way of reinserting themselves in the peace process with continued vows over reinitiating larger packages of sanctions and continued logistical support for Ukraine. Turkey’s position is also significant, as Erdogan bolsters the country’s regional and global influence portfolio of soft power, as Turkey is one of the countries that has successfully navigated the mirky waters of the war and managed to stay diplomatically afloat in respect to both Russia and Ukraine. The current development represents the most significant progress in recent months, however, the lack of response from Russia towards Zelenskyy’s proposal raises concerns over whether the negotiations would take place on 15 May.